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Month: January 2019
Oil markets time machine. Past, present and future.
What can we learn about oil markets from the last ten years? The next decade. The final piece in our five part series on the future of oil and energy markets
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Signals in the data. Oil prices, tea leaves and crude price direction.
What does the data say about future direction of crude oil markets. We look at OPEC spare production capacity, future volumes, spreads and production to consumption ratio.
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Building a supply side model for crude oil
What factors would impact crude oil supply side equation in 2019? Russian non compliance, lower breakeven for US producers, higher production, restoration of disrupted supply in Libya and Kurdish Iraq. The list long.
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Modeling demand for liquid fuels
The best way to model demand is to take a look at how we consume energy today at a national or global level and then extend that model to 2019 and onwards. The question we want to answer is, what segments are biggest consumers of
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A model for crude oil prices
Setting up the foundation for our crude oil price model. A look at model complexities, expectations, data sources and core thesis. Part II of our new series.
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Making sense of crude oil in 2019.
Why is modeling oil prices so complicated? From investment banks to energy policy analysts, every one in the financial services world has been looking for the right model. We take a deep dive in the world of liquid fuels to see if can fare better. Part I of our brand new multipart series.
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