Till November 30th, take $60 off the cover price when you order your electronic copy. The package include a 71 page study guide and 3 supplementary Excel Spreadsheets that focus on Monte Carlo Simulation of Dynamic Delta Hedging, Calculation of Cash PnL & Dissection of Option Price Sensitivities (Greeks).
Learn more about the title through the Delta Hedging & Greeks Book launch post.
And
What started off as a study note to address an intelligent question from a student and completely inadequate teaching on my part, turned into a monster side project that consumed the best part of a year.
The original question dealt with the behavior of Greeks, usage of higher order Greeks by traders and the concept of Delta hedging. It was supplemented by a request for recommended reading that I would care to suggest on this topic.
The challenge was that other than Nassim Taleb’s Dynamic Hedging there is literally nothing out there that you could refer a curious soul to. While Dynamic Hedging is the one and only guide on this topic, it generally leads to Cardiac infractions and CVA’s (Cerebrovascular Accident, not Credit Value Adjustments) in new students. To reduce mortality rate of fresh intakes in computational finance graduate programs and sales and trading desks, there was need for a beginners guide. Ideally with no stochastic calculus and no partial differential equations.
The end result: A study guide that walks through Option Price Sensitivities and Greeks behavior, helps you plot the same in Excel, use a dynamic Delta hedging simulation to get you comfortable with the majors and uses a Cash PnL simulation to dissect the minor Greeks.
It is not a conventional interview guide with interview questions. More like a survival kit that you can use to brush up on Greeks in a rush before the interview or before your exam. You don’t want to digest Taleb the night before; but you can play with an Excel sheet and tweak it to till you are able to connect the missing dots.
The complete package includes a 73 page study note and 3 Excel spreadsheets that you can cover end to end in about 3 hours and build intuition that can help you navigate trick questions and traps in the interview room.
Pick a copy under the early buyers promotion valid till 3oth November and take $60 dollars off the cover price.
The problem with Greeks is that the topic is so out there for most students and non-practitioners that we would rather ignore it. Who would actually care about the second moment (Gamma) or the third (Delta of Gamma) for that matter in the non-trading desk world. Plus by the time you actually get to a level that you can talk intelligently about the subject you are so short of oxygen that there is nobody left to talk to.
Understanding Greeks – Introduction
Understanding Greeks – Analyzing Delta & Gamma
Understanding Greeks – The Guide to delta hedging using Monte Carlo Simulation
Dynamic Delta Hedging Simulation – Cash PnL calculations
Using Dynamic Delta Hedging Simulation as a learning tool
Understanding Greeks – Quick Reference Guide to Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta & Rho
I remember the pain I went through when I first tried to decipher Greeks, Continuous Time Finance and Monte Carlo Simulations. It was only when I met Mark Broadie and Maria Vassalou at Columbia that the cobwebs in my mind cleared up. While this book doesn’t deal with the original pain, it uses the approach Mark used to teach us a fairly difficult subject. Use Excel, Monte Carlo Simulation and intelligent questions (aka thought experiments).
The book is therefore packaged with spreadsheets that can be used interactively with relevant sections (see included Excel spreadsheets detail specification at the end of this post). As a student you can actually build the sheets using the step by step guides or simply use the packaged editions to answer the questions we ask.
And we ask many questions. In fact in one specific section we lead you all around town using the incorrect approach till you finally figure out the right answer. I have found this to be one of the most effective ways of ensuring comprehension and understanding.
The 73 pages are primarily a guide to building a delta hedging spreadsheet for European Call and Put Options. Nassim Taleb emphasizes the use of a generator function to build trader intuition and we have included one. We then use the Delta hedging sheet to think about Delta, Gamma, Vega & Rho by asking questions that help reinforce that intuition. For Greeks we include an Excel calculation spread sheets as well as over thirty graphs that analyze Greeks behavior across changing Spot, Strikes, Volatility, Time & Interest rates.
To get the most out of the package, we recommend that you follow the book and the templates to build your Excel spreadsheets from scratch.
However the most important section of the book deals with Cash PnL from dynamic hedging. It turns out to be a terrific tool, once you link the profitability calculation to Greeks and use it to dissect components and contributors to PnL.
The Table of Content produced below has more details.
Pick a copy under the early buyers promotion valid till 30th November and take $60 dollars off the cover price.
Dynamic Delta Hedging – Monte Carlo Simulation – Greeks – Downloadable Excel File Guide
This product contains 3 EXCEL files.
Pick a copy under the early buyers promotion valid till end of November and take $60 dollars off the cover price.
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Now that we have a Delta Hedging Model for Calls and Puts let’s try and use it to answer the following questions:
a) What is the impact of rebalancing frequency on hedging profitability?
b) What is the impact of a rise in volatility on profitability? How does implied volatility help in interpreting this change?
c) What is the impact of changes in risk free rates on profitability?
d) How does the interaction of time to expiry and volatility changes profitability?
These are all questions that should occur naturally to you as you spend more time with the Delta Hedging model. They are also essential to building a deeper understanding of the concept of implied volatility, Rho & Theta.
Let’s take a look at these questions one by one. We will begin work with a call option assuming the following valuation parameters:
Figure 1 Dynamic Delta Hedging – P&L review assumptions
The theoretical value of the call option is 3.01 based on the above assumptions. The resulting Cash Accounting P&L for a single run of the Dynamic Delta Hedging model is as under:
Figure 2 Dynamic Delta Hedging – P&L Review – Base case
A good hedge is one where the cost of the hedge is close to the theoretical value of the option. In our cash accounting P&L we have included the theoretical premium received which is used in determining the initial amount to be borrowed. Hence for a hedge to be considered good or efficient the Net P&L should be close to this premium amount.
To see if increasing the frequency led to better results, we increase the time steps used from 12 steps to 365 steps. The graph below plots the Net P&L to Theoretical Value across 100 simulated runs. A value close to 100% means that it is a close match to the premium whereas a value farther away for 100% indicates a poor match.
Figure 3 Dynamic Delta Hedging – P&L Simulation – Rebalancing frequency
We can clearly see that there is much greater variation when the rebalancing is done on a monthly basis than when it is carried out on a daily basis.
The graph below gives a similar picture. In this case however, the premium is not considered when determining the amount to be borrowed at option inception, i.e. the hedge is fully funded through borrowing. A value of -100% indicates that the Net P&L i.e. the cost of the hedge, in this case exactly matches the theoretical value of the call option.
Figure 4 Dynamic Delta Hedging – P&L Simulation – Hedge Effectiveness
But that is the risk manager’s point of view. What about a trader’s point of view?
From a trading point of view there are two lessons here. First the large variation in P&L linked to jump’s in the underlying price is the un-hedged Gamma at work (Is that true? Think about it). Second would you prefer to limit the cost of hedging the option to the amount you have charged your customer or less? If you are in the business of earning a living from writing options, the premium you charge on the options you sell should always be higher than your cost; your cost of effectively hedging the option.
Now back to the Gamma question. Gamma is your second order error term. Conceptually it’s similar to convexity and linked to changes in not just the underlying price but also volatility. Is your true P&L (the premium received less the actual cost of hedging) is the summation of the hedge error?
With volatility there are multiple questions. How does profitability change when the general environment moves from low volatility to high volatility? How does profitability change when you have already written an option and volatility moves for or against you?
Let’s start from the first question. Using the 12-step model we calculate the impact on Net P&L. In our base case we have assumed a volatility of 20%. Let us now assume that the volatility increases to 40%. What is the impact on hedge efficiency for options written in the two different environment?
Figure 5 Volatility & Profitability – Low volatility world
Figure 6 Volatility & Profitability – High Volatility world
So premiums are clearly higher and so is profitability in absolute terms. But is that true in the relative world? Let’s take a quick look by plotting the Net P&L to Theoretical Value across 100 simulated runs. In relative terms (as a % of premiums) there is not much difference. Why is that? Is this a result you expected?
Figure 7 Dynamic Delta Hedging – P&L Simulation – Volatility Impact
To answer these questions you have to revisit implied volatility. Let’s use the same scenario as above but with a minor change. We wrote options and received premiums assuming an implied volatility of 30%. The actual realized volatility over the life of the option was 20%. How did that change our resulting simulated P&L.
Figure 8 Implied volatility at work – Hedge Profitability
You can now see a clear difference in absolute as well as relative terms in net P&L. And the difference arises on account of the spread between the premium charged ($8.13) versus the premium needed ($3.01).
(To run this exercise using the Delta Hedge Sheet, simply calculate the value of the premium at the implied volatility level you want to charge and replace the original premium in the simulation with this value).
We present the results of three P&L simulations runs in the tables below. The first assumes a risk free interest rate of 1%, the 2nd uses 2% and the third uses a risk free interest rate estimate of 5%.
The first two are easy, rates go up, premiums goes up and a European Call option becomes more expensive. Why is that?
Figure 9 Dynamic Delta Hedging profitability – P&L at 1% interest rates
The reason is the average interest paid column. The premium goes up by 28 cents of which 21 cents is the increased cost of financing the borrowed position. Where does the other 7 cents comes from? (Need a hint – Other than the borrowing component who else benefits or uses r, the risk free rate?)
Figure 10 Dynamic Delta Hedging profitability – P&L at 2% interest rate
The second one is more difficult. In this instance as rates increase to 5% from the original 1%, the cost of borrowing balloons to $1.95 from the original $0.30 but the impact in option premium is only $1.244. How does this work? (Hint, think about what other driver/factor in the Black Scholes Analysis uses r?)
Figure 11 Dynamic Delta Hedging profitability – P&L at 5% interest rates
In addition to borrowing the difference between premium received and Delta hedge, the other usage of the risk free rate, r, is in estimating the future value of the underlying asset in the BSM (Black Scholes Model’s) risk neutral world. This implies that there are other components of Rho, in addition to the borrowing cost. That you need to examine and be comfortable with.
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In earlier posts we have set the foundation for hedging in practice. We did this by calculating Option Price Sensitivities (Greeks) and Delta hedging for European Call as well as Put Options.
Why would you want to hedge Gamma?
Figure 1 Options Greeks – Delta and Moneyness – Hedging higher order Greeks
If you leave it un-hedged you are exposed to the risk of large moves, especially when the option is at or near money. When you are deep out or deep in, Delta is flat and asymptotic as shown above. But when are you not, a large move can result in significant trading loss despite being Delta hedged. As long as prices move in small increments and do not jump dramatically, Delta hedge will cover you. The underlying jumps, you are exposed.
We have seen this at work earlier with duration and convexity with similar implications. Delta is the first order rate of change and works well within a narrow band. Within and outside that band Gamma tracks not just the error but also the magnitude of your gain/loss in case of a large move (up/down). The magnitude of the error shifts dramatically as the option gets closer to the At/Near money state. When options are deep in or deep out, similar to Delta, Gamma also flattens out. However given the convex nature of the 2nd derivative in this case, the impact of a large up move or a large down move is not symmetric.
Figure 2 Option Greeks – Gamma & Moneyness – Hedging Higher order Greeks
But you can’t hedge higher order Greeks (Gamma) by buying or selling the underlying. Why not?
First the 2nd derivative of a spot/forward/linear position is zero so hedging Gamma through the underlying is out. The second complexity arises with Vega. We really don’t know what shape or form realized volatility will take in the future. How can we effectively hedge it?
Then there is the issue of term structure of volatility. Implied volatility changes based on time to maturity (term structure) as well as money-ness (deep in, deep out, At/Near – strike price) so taking a simple constant volatility view across all options irrespective of maturity or money-ness would actually be in-accurate.
Figure 3 Option Greeks – Vega & Moneyness – Hedging higher order Greeks
The third catch is that both Gamma and Vega use exactly the same calculation function for Calls and Puts (Gamma for a call and put has the same value, Vega for a call and a put has the same value). Which creates interesting implications for hedging a book of options with calls and puts. You may be perfectly hedged and squared with respect to your Gamma and Vega exposures but the wrong universe/direction of hedging choices can still wipe you out.
We hedge Gamma and Vega by buying other options (specifically cheaper out of money options) with similar maturities. Like Delta hedging we need to rebalance but the rebalance frequency is less frequent than Delta hedging. Your final hedge is therefore a mix of exposure to the underlying (partial delta hedge) and cheaper options with similar maturities.
The only question is that it’s a large universe of options out there, how do we manage multiple constraints including premium & sensitivities across products, maturities (tenors), Delta, Gamma & Vega. The answer is constraint optimization through Excel solver. In our next post we will show how to build a simple Excel solver model that takes a universe of four options and uses it to match the required Delta, Gamma, Vega profile for a single option.
Before we jump to the next post, please review the following background posts on Option Greeks & Delta Hedging to ensure that you are comfortable with the calculation of Delta, Gamma & Vega as well the implementation of Delta Hedging in Excel.
Understanding Greeks – Introduction
Understanding Greeks – Analyzing Delta & Gamma
Understanding Greeks – The Guide to delta hedging using Monte Carlo Simulation
Understanding Greeks – Quick Reference Guide to Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta & Rho
Related posts:
As part of our Sales & Trading technical interview guide series we have done a number of posts on Greeks, Delta hedging and estimation of Delta hedging Profit & Loss.
A recent client/student/interview request indicated a preference/need for a sheet dedicated to European Put Options Greek plots. Hence the Greeks Put Option suspects’ gallery. While some of these are making a second appearance, we think a Put only collection is indeed useful given our focus on European Call options.
The Analysis framework used for dissecting put option Greeks is simple. We break the contracts down by “money-ness”. The three categories are Deep In, At/Near, Deep Out of money options.
And the five option pricing variables – Spot, Strike, Vol, Interest Rates & Time. This analytical combination produces interesting results.
The options for which Greeks have been plotted below assume a volatility of 20%, a risk free rate of 5% and a time to maturity of 1 year. In addition Spot and Strike prices are:
Deep In
Spot = 50
Strike = 100
At/Near
Spot = 50
Strike = 100
Deep Out
Spot = 50
Strike = 100
Understanding Greeks – Introduction
Understanding Greeks – Analyzing Delta & Gamma
Understanding Greeks – The Guide to delta hedging using Monte Carlo Simulation
Understanding Greeks – Quick Reference Guide to Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta & Rho
Related posts:
If you have been playing the odds game mentally for the US Presidential election and want a resource to take a bet on your view on the likely winner on 6th November 2012, here is an interesting resource.
The Intra-Trade US Presidential Election Prediction ticker. The 10 dollar par value share predicting a US Presidential election win for President Obama is now trading at $6.6 and change. Governor Romney is down at $3.3 per share. Pre-Sandy the range was $6.2 for President Obama and $3.7 for Governor Romney. If you buy now and the man from Chicago wins, your share will settle at $10 par, netting you a cool 50% return in 4 days.
Any takers?
Take a quick look at the Campaign roundup by John Avlon at the Daily Beast before you take your position. John is predicting a close race but with the incumbent as the likely winner, based on early voting trends in Ohio where the spread between the two candidates is 26 points rather than the neck to neck finish Gallup is forecasting.
A big thanks to Rakesh Gopchandhani for sharing it.
Ps. For the Sharia compliant crowd, this is not an investment, it is a bet.
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