Bank consolidation and M&A drivers It is that time of the year again within the banking industry in the Middle East. The move for bank consolidation and the need to roll out and brush the dust off our bank M&A models.  Like every other industry

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Bank consolidation and M&A drivers It is that time of the year again within the banking industry in the Middle East. The move for bank consolidation and the need to roll out and brush the dust off our bank M&A models.  Like every other industry

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Unexpected Loss, Expected Loss & Economic Capital. A follow up post on our Economic Capital series where we looked at an alternate approach for calculating Economic Capital using accounting data rather than the BIS guidelines. Within that discussion it was felt that we needed a

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Economic Capital – Everything you ever wanted to know but were afraid to ask. For the last seventeen years I have hated conversations with board members around economic capital. It is perfectly acceptable to discuss Market risk, Credit risk or interest rates mismatch in isolation

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Calculating Economic Capital – Using Leverage ratio So far we have presented two methods for estimating Economic Capital. The first uses the worst case change in Shareholders equity, the second the volatility of the same changes. The challenge with method one and two is that

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Calculating Economic Capital – Using Volatility In our first method presented earlier for calculating economic capital we used the historical worst case shift. In method two we use volatility. Method two is a variation designed to provide additional flexibility in estimating probability of capital shortfall in the

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Economic Capital Case Study – Method One Our alternate model for calculating Economic Capital comes in a multiple variation. We do a detailed presentation for method one, followed by smaller posts on each variation. Method one use changes in Shareholders equity as reported in publicly

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Econmic Capital Modeling – Using accounting data With the arrival of fair value accounting, mark to market disclosures and Sarbanes Oxley (SOX) the quality of accounting data has improved over the last decade. It is not a perfect proxy for ground realities but it is represents

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Economic Capital Case Study – Banking Sector The best way to illustrate our shortfall economic capital model is to walk through an extended case study.  Here is our plan. Let’s take a look at five financial institutions. Goldman Sachs, Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo

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Economic Capital – a first look Among the many uses of capital one overlooked use is its ability to send signals to regulators, customers and partners.   Models and their usage give an indication of the sophistication and maturity of an organization. Using economic capital models

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